The Azeri-Armenian Conflict

Historical Context:

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which are mostly controlled by the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, but are internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

The conflict first began in 1988 after the then leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, decided to make the region an autonomous oblast of Soviet Azerbaijan. Starting 1998, the region saw various instances of guerilla warfare and a full-scale war that eventually ended in 1994; the war killed an estimated 30,000 people and displaced nearly 1 million.

A ceasefire, signed in 1994, provided relative stability for nearly two decades which significantly deteriorated along with Azerbaijan's increasing frustration with the status quo, at odds with Armenia's efforts to cement it. There were also several border clashes between the nations – the 2010 violence, 2011-13 clashes, 2014 shoot-downs, and the Four Day War in 2016 which was the deadliest ceasefire violation until the 2020 crisis.

Current Situation:

The 2020 Crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an ongoing armed conflict between the armed forces of the Azerbaijan and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, together with Armenia. It is the most recent escalation of the unresolved conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The clashes began on the morning of 27 September 2020 along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact. In response to the conflict, Armenia and Artsakh introduced martial law and total mobilization while Azerbaijan introduced martial law and a curfew. Later, on 28 September, partial mobilization was declared in the Azeri country. Both sides have reported military and civilian casualties.

Numerous countries and organizations, including the United Nations, have strongly condemned the conflict and called for both sides to deescalate tensions and begin helpful negotiations without delay. As for support, Turkey has provided military support to Azerbaijan but the general extent of its support is said to be disputed.

International analysts believe that fighting was probably initiated by Azerbaijan since Armenia’s goal since the conception of war has been to maintain status-quo in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Besides, Azerbaijan’s primary goals for its offenses are likely believed to capture districts in the southern, less mountainous region of the conflict area.